Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 5Anthony doubled to left, Bregman scored.2–4
- 2Toro hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.2–3
- 2Duran tripled to center, Story scored and Narváez scored.2–2
- 1T. Hernández homered to left (390 feet).2–0
- 1Ohtani homered to center (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML LAD +135 / BOS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- LAD +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 4.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +18 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 32–2110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–60 | 54–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 33–54 | 25–35 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 29–16 |
| Overs–unders | 57–47 | 51–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–1 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.