Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Semien singled to left, Smith scored, Seager to second.5–6
- 9Heim doubled to right, Haggerty scored.5–5
- 9Murphy hit sacrifice fly to left, Harris II scored.5–4
- 6Harris II homered to center (422 feet).4–4
- 4Harris II hit a ground rule double, Albies scored.3–4
- 3A. García singled to center, Seager scored and Semien scored.2–4
- 2Jung singled to left, Carter scored.2–2
- 2Carter tripled to right, A. García scored.2–1
- 2Profar singled to center, Harris II scored.2–0
- 1Albies singled to right, Profar scored, Baldwin to second, Olson thrown out at home.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML ATL -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −7 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–32 | Road vs home | 32–208th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–59 | 55–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–46 | 26–30 |
| Underdog | 14–13 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–56 | 41–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.