New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Acuña Jr. homered to center (456 feet).4–2
- 7Chisholm Jr. doubled to center, Judge scored.4–1
- 6Olson homered to right (442 feet).3–1
- 6Vivas hit by pitch, Goldschmidt scored, Volpe to second, Rice to third.3–0
- 1Goldschmidt singled to center, Stanton scored, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–0
- 1Judge homered to right center (409 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML NYY +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 5.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY 0 Elo | NYY 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 25–2320th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–52 | 42–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–48 | 28–43 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 45–53 | 43–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–6 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.