New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II grounded out to second, Murphy scored, Alvarez Jr. to third.12–9
- 9Grisham homered to right center (406 feet), Goldschmidt scored, Judge scored and Stanton scored.12–8
- 8Volpe homered to left center (411 feet).8–8
- 7Bellinger homered to right center (382 feet).7–8
- 6Olson singled to right, Profar scored.6–8
- 6Wells grounded out to second, Chisholm Jr. scored, Grisham to third.6–7
- 6Volpe hit sacrifice fly to center, Stanton scored, Grisham to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.5–7
- 6Grisham grounded into fielder's choice to first, Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Olson, Stanton to third.4–7
- 6Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Bellinger scored, Stanton to second, Judge to third.3–7
- 5Albies singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Murphy scored.2–7
- 5Volpe homered to left center (420 feet), Grisham scored.2–5
- 4Allen reached on infield single to first, Alvarez Jr. scored, Harris II to second.0–5
- 4Albies homered to right (352 feet), Baldwin scored and Murphy scored.0–4
- 3Harris II homered to center (438 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / ATL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −17 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +24 Elo | NYY 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 25–2219th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 4th of 301540 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–52 | 42–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 38–48 | 28–43 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 44–53 | 42–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 1–6 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.