San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt GagePitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting3-5, 6 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Chapman doubled to left, Adames scored.5–9
- 7Adames homered to left (389 feet).4–9
- 6Baldwin doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.3–9
- 5Adames doubled to center, Devers scored.3–8
- 4Albies singled to center, Baldwin scored.2–8
- 4Baldwin singled to center, Olson scored and Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to second.2–7
- 2Bailey hit sacrifice fly to center, Flores scored.2–5
- 1Allen singled to left, Albies scored and Baldwin scored, Murphy to second.1–5
- 1Baldwin doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Profar scored and Olson scored.1–3
- 1Chapman reached on infield single to third, Ramos scored, Devers to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML SF +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +41 Elo | ATL 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 25–2421st of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–59 | 42–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–43 | 28–44 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 47–53 | 43–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–8 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.