San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Springer scored.6–8
- 6Lee singled to center, Wisely scored, Lee thrown out at second, Knizner to third.6–7
- 6Wisely singled to center, Smith scored.5–7
- 6Chapman homered to right center (384 feet), Devers scored.4–7
- 5Barger homered to right (407 feet), Kirk scored.2–7
- 5Kirk singled to center, Bichette scored.2–5
- 5Springer homered to left (375 feet).2–4
- 5Knizner singled to center, Chapman scored, Smith to second.2–3
- 3Bichette doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Clement scored.1–3
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 1Ramos singled to left, Lee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML SF +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −2 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 34–162nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 151713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–58 | 57–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–43 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 34–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–53 | 54–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–6 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.