San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Murphy grounded out to third, Olson scored.9–3
- 7Baldwin hit a ground rule double, White scored and Profar scored, Olson to third.9–2
- 7Matos singled to center, Smith scored.9–0
- 7Bailey grounded out to pitcher, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.8–0
- 7Smith singled to right, Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to third.7–0
- 6Devers homered to right center (410 feet), Matos scored and Ramos scored.6–0
- 5Chapman homered to right center (391 feet), Adames scored.3–0
- 5Devers homered to right (357 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML SF +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +14 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.019th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 26–2521st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–60 | 43–57 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–43 | 29–45 |
| Underdog | 26–17 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 48–54 | 44–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–9 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.