San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5
- Davis DanielPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Flores homered to left (364 feet), Devers scored and Adames scored.9–0
- 7Devers singled to right, Ramos scored.6–0
- 5Adames singled to left, Devers scored.5–0
- 2Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored.4–0
- 2Schmitt homered to left (416 feet).3–0
- 2Flores hit sacrifice fly to left, Chapman scored.2–0
- 2Chapman tripled to center, Adames scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML SF +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 26–2420th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 151115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–60 | 43–56 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–43 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 48–53 | 44–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–9 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.