Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Harris II scored, Profar out at second, Williams to third.3–8
- 9Profar singled to right, Murphy scored, Williams to second, Harris II to third.2–8
- 8Tellez hit sacrifice fly to center, Heim scored.1–8
- 8Carter singled to right, Langford scored, Smith to second, Heim to third.1–7
- 8Smith hit by pitch, Jung scored, Heim to second, Langford to third.1–6
- 8Heim walked, A. García scored, Langford to second, Jung to third.1–5
- 7Harris II homered to right center (388 feet).1–4
- 5Haggerty doubled to left, Helman scored.0–4
- 4Langford doubled to left, Semien scored.0–3
- 2Heim homered to left (391 feet).0–2
- 1Semien hit sacrifice fly to center, Haggerty scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML ATL +125 / TEX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 59.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- ATL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +16 | ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +68 Elo | TEX 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–31 | Road vs home | 31–2010th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–58 | 54–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 29–46 | 25–30 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 45–56 | 40–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.