Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Randal GrichukBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rich HillPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Frazier hit sacrifice fly to left, Garcia scored.10–7
- 9Fermin singled to right, Pasquantino scored and Witt Jr. scored, Garcia to third.10–6
- 9Profar singled to center, Allen scored.10–4
- 8Grichuk homered to left center (423 feet).9–4
- 8Riley doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Profar scored and Olson scored.9–3
- 8Olson doubled to left, Allen scored, Profar to third.6–3
- 7Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.5–3
- 7Riley homered to right center (422 feet).5–2
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (406 feet), Albies scored.4–2
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to left center (468 feet), Olson scored.2–2
- 1Perez singled to right, Garcia scored.0–2
- 1Garcia doubled to center, India scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML ATL -175 / KC +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -156
- KC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −18 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Rich Hill: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +7 Elo | ATL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–34 | Road vs home | 26–2722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–60 | 52–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–46 | 14–32 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 48–56 | 43–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 5–1 KC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.