Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10India homered to left center (413 feet), Rave scored and Maile scored.3–5
- 10Manzardo singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Martínez to third.3–2
- 7Naylor doubled to center, Schneemann scored, Rocchio thrown out at home.2–2
- 5Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Schneemann scored.1–2
- 4Garcia homered to left center (418 feet), Witt Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML CLE -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- KC: Elo 52.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- CLE +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +17 Elo | KC 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 24–2624th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 12–31 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 47–55 | 42–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–16 KC in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 32.