Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan singled to center, Naylor scored, Kwan to second.2–3
- 6Holliday homered to right (356 feet).2–2
- 4Manzardo singled to left, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.1–2
- 4O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML BAL +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +39 Elo | CLE 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 24–2421st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–54 | 50–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 30–26 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 45–55 | 47–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–11 CLE in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.