Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rocchio singled to left, Fry scored and Jones scored, Rocchio to second, Schneemann to second, Schneemann safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Laureano.5–10
- 7Schneemann walked, Ramírez scored, Jones to second, Fry to third.5–8
- 7Jones walked, Martínez scored, Fry to second, Ramírez to third.5–7
- 6Manzardo homered to right (332 feet).5–6
- 5Naylor homered to right center (408 feet).5–5
- 4Santana singled to right, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.5–4
- 3Laureano homered to left (425 feet), O'Hearn scored.5–3
- 1Ramírez homered to right (381 feet), Kwan scored and Martínez scored.3–3
- 1Laureano singled to center, Westburg scored and Henderson scored.3–0
- 1Henderson singled to center, Holliday scored, Westburg to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML BAL +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +24 Elo | CLE 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 22–2424th of 30 |
| 9th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–52 | 48–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 14–26 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 43–55 | 45–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–9 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.