Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rocchio hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Jones scored, Schneemann to second.3–6
- 7Holliday singled to center, Mayo scored, O'Hearn to second.3–5
- 6Martínez singled to left, Rocchio scored, Naylor to second.2–5
- 6Rocchio singled to center, Schneemann scored.2–4
- 6Laureano homered to left (398 feet).2–3
- 5Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to center, Naylor scored, Martínez to third.1–3
- 5Stallings grounded into double play, pitcher to second to shortstop to first, Urías scored, Mayo out at second, Cowser to third.1–2
- 3Manzardo singled to center, Martínez scored, Ramírez to third.0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to right (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML BAL +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- BAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −27 | +4 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 1.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +59 Elo | CLE 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 23–2423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301485 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–53 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 15–26 |
| Underdog | 30–25 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 44–55 | 46–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 8–10 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.