Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arias homered to right center (425 feet).1–4
- 5Garcia homered to left center (411 feet).0–4
- 4Maile doubled to left, Rave scored.0–3
- 1Garcia grounded out to third, Witt Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pasquantino grounded out to first, India scored, Witt Jr. to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 54%
- ML CLE +110 / KC -130
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- KC: Elo 51.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | 0 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +12 Elo | KC 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 25–2724th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–53 | 51–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–28 | 13–32 |
| Underdog | 35–25 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 48–56 | 43–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–17 KC in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.