Atlanta Braves at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4
- Dylan DoddPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Heim singled to center, Carter scored, Jung to second.1–8
- 3Jung singled to center, A. García scored and Langford scored, Carter to third.1–7
- 2Smith homered to right (363 feet), Heim scored.1–5
- 2Murphy hit a ground rule double, Baldwin scored, Riley to third.1–3
- 1Langford doubled to left, A. García scored, Smith scored and Semien scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML ATL +105 / TEX -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–33 | Road vs home | 33–208th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–59 | 55–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–46 | 26–31 |
| Underdog | 15–13 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 47–56 | 42–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.