Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith doubled to left, Outman scored.5–4
- 7Freeman singled to left, Betts scored, Smith to third.4–4
- 7Smith singled to left, Conforto scored, Betts to second.3–4
- 5De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Trevino scored, McLain out at second, Lux to third.2–4
- 4Marte homered to right (350 feet).2–3
- 4Fraley homered to right (405 feet), Hays scored.2–2
- 2Edman homered to right (342 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / CIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +13 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +21 Elo | LAD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 6th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 31–2315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–61 | 57–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–54 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–50 | 43–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–8 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.