Atlanta Braves at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8White singled to center, Profar scored, Olson to second.6–9
- 8Olson singled to center, Albies scored, Profar to second.5–9
- 7Ozuna singled to right, White scored, Harris II to third.4–9
- 6Pasquantino hit a ground rule double, Witt Jr. scored.3–9
- 6Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored.3–8
- 6Isbel doubled to left, Frazier scored, Grichuk scored and Fermin scored.3–7
- 6Ozuna homered to left center (399 feet), Harris II scored.3–4
- 6Riley homered to center (434 feet).1–4
- 2Witt Jr. singled to center, India scored.0–4
- 2India doubled to left, Frazier scored and Isbel scored.0–3
- 1Pasquantino homered to right (412 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML ATL +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- KC: Elo 54.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +3 | ATL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +33 Elo | KC 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 27th of 3019–34 | Road vs home | 26–2824th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–60 | 52–55 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 14–32 |
| Underdog | 15–14 | 38–23 |
| Overs–unders | 49–56 | 44–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–1 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.