Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Drew MillasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brad LordPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Millas doubled to left, Adams scored and Lile scored, Hassell III to third.14–3
- 8Ortiz doubled to left, Yelich scored and Collins scored, Durbin to third.14–1
- 7Turang homered to right (396 feet), Ortiz scored.12–1
- 7Ortiz singled to right, Durbin scored and Lockridge scored.10–1
- 7Lockridge singled to center, Collins scored and Perkins scored, Durbin to third.8–1
- 7Durbin hit by pitch, Yelich scored, Perkins to second, Collins to third.6–1
- 6Durbin scored on throwing error by catcher Millas.5–1
- 6Durbin scored on throwing error by catcher Millas.5–1
- 6Lockridge hit sacrifice fly to left, Perkins scored.4–1
- 5Young singled to left, Millas scored.3–1
- 2Turang homered to right center (399 feet), Lockridge scored.3–0
- 1Yelich singled to center, Contreras scored, Vaughn to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / WSH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 59.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +20 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 1.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +65 Elo | MIL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3030–24 | Road vs home | 21–3329th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 1st of 301558 | Elo rating | 144928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–48 | 55–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–30 | 2–18 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 53–37 |
| Overs–unders | 50–60 | 60–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 10–7 WSH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.