Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7White homered to left center (413 feet).4–2
- 2McLain hit sacrifice fly to center, Stephenson scored.3–2
- 2White homered to left (411 feet), Harris II scored and Albies scored.3–1
- 1Hays singled to left, McLain scored, De La Cruz to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML ATL +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | — | — | ATL: Starter not announced · CIN: Starter not announced |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–61 | 59–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 38–18 |
| Overs–unders | 51–58 | 45–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–7 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.