Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Williams hit sacrifice fly to left, Harris II scored.2–3
- 9Albies singled to center, Ozuna scored, Harris II to third.1–3
- 7Benson homered to left (356 feet), Steer scored.0–3
- 6McLain singled to center, Benson scored, McLain to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML ATL +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −4 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3020–36 | Road vs home | 32–2514th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150815th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–61 | 59–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 38–18 |
| Overs–unders | 51–57 | 45–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 11–6 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.