San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez singled to right, Vientos scored and Mullins scored.12–4
- 9Schmitt homered to left (369 feet), Chapman scored and Smith scored.12–2
- 9Smith singled to center, Devers scored and Ramos scored, Chapman to third.9–2
- 5Alvarez doubled to right, McNeil scored on throwing error by right fielder McCray.7–2
- 4Devers singled to right, Bailey scored, Ramos to second.7–1
- 4Ramos reached on infield single to shortstop, Lee scored, Bailey to third.6–1
- 4Bailey grounded into fielder's choice to first, Schmitt scored, Lee to second.5–1
- 3Devers homered to right (403 feet), Bailey scored and Ramos scored.4–1
- 3Bailey singled to center, Lee scored.1–1
- 1Lindor homered to left (368 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML SF +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- SF +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −12 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +48 Elo | NYM 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 38–171st of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–67 | 52–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–48 | 31–47 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59 | 48–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–10 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.