New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Clay HolmesPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill hit sacrifice fly to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.0–5
- 3Sheets homered to right center (427 feet), Iglesias scored.0–4
- 2Machado singled to left, Maldonado scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML NYM +100 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- SD: Elo 51.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–30 | Road vs home | 33–184th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–57 | 60–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–46 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–61 | 45–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–7 SD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.