San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill reached on infield single to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second.9–2
- 7Bogaerts homered to left (375 feet).8–2
- 6Burleson homered to center (417 feet), Herrera scored.7–2
- 4Machado doubled to shortstop, Arraez scored and Díaz scored.7–0
- 4Arraez singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Arraez to second, Díaz to third.5–0
- 4Díaz hit sacrifice bunt, Sheets scored, Cronenworth to second.4–0
- 3Merrill grounded out to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second.3–0
- 1Machado doubled to center, Arraez scored and Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by center fielder Scott II.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML SD +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- STL: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +6 Elo | STL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 31–2111th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–47 | 53–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–31 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–62 | 57–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–9 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.