St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moniak walked, Toglia scored, Freeman to second, Amador to third.4–8
- 8Pozo doubled to right, Walker scored.4–7
- 7Donovan doubled to right, Scott II scored.3–7
- 5Doyle singled to left, Tovar scored, Doyle to second.2–7
- 4Winn singled to right, Contreras scored.2–6
- 4Arenado grounded out to third, Burleson scored.1–6
- 3McMahon homered to left center (410 feet), Moniak scored and Beck scored.0–6
- 2Amador doubled to right, Doyle scored and McMahon scored.0–3
- 1Moniak homered to right (450 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML STL -165 / COL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- STL: Elo 63.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −17 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +99 Elo | STL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 12–3830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 138430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–50 | 49–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 47–47 |
| Overs–unders | 55–46 | 41–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–6 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.