St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4
- Austin GomberPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Walker singled to left, Contreras scored, Winn to second, Arenado to third.6–2
- 6Donovan hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Scott II to second, Pagés to third.5–2
- 6Pagés singled to right, Arenado scored, Walker to third.4–2
- 5Contreras singled to left, Donovan scored.3–2
- 4Winn doubled to left, Arenado scored.2–2
- 4Contreras homered to left center (443 feet).1–2
- 3Goodman singled to center, Moniak scored.0–2
- 3Moniak singled to center, Amador scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Moniak to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML STL -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 62.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +85 Elo | STL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 3022–29 | Road vs home | 12–3730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 138630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 49–50 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 47–46 |
| Overs–unders | 55–45 | 41–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–6 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.