St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-2
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tovar homered to right (390 feet).0–6
- 5Beck doubled to left, Freeman scored, Goodman to third.0–5
- 2Moniak singled to right, Amador scored, Freeman to third.0–4
- 2Freeman singled to right, Farmer scored, Amador to third.0–3
- 2Amador singled to left, Nola scored, Farmer to second.0–2
- 2Farmer singled to center, McMahon scored, Nola to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 61%
- ML STL -175 / COL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- STL: Elo 62.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 6.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +85 Elo | STL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 20th of 3023–30 | Road vs home | 13–3830th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15102nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Elo rating | 138730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–51 | 50–51 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 48–47 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46 | 42–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–7 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.