San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Bryce JohnsonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Johnson scored.3–1
- 4Johnson reached on bunt single to first, Cronenworth scored.2–1
- 2Walker doubled to center, Arenado scored.1–1
- 2Johnson singled to center, Cronenworth scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML SD +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- STL: Elo 49.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | 0 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 31–209th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 9th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–47 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–31 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 34–16 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–61 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–9 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.