San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Herrera homered to center (412 feet).7–9
- 5Bogaerts scored on error, Johnson safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Contreras.7–8
- 5Sheets grounded out to shortstop, Merrill scored, Bogaerts to third.6–8
- 4Herrera singled to center, Scott II scored.5–8
- 3Machado homered to center (408 feet), Arraez scored.5–7
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to right center (402 feet).3–7
- 2Contreras homered to left center (415 feet), Herrera scored and Burleson scored.2–7
- 2Donovan homered to right (385 feet), Walker scored and Scott II scored.2–4
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Donovan scored, Contreras to third.2–1
- 1Merrill singled to right, Arraez scored.2–0
- 1Arraez doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML SD +130 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- STL: Elo 48.5%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +3 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +11 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 29–2013th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 9th of 301522 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–45 | 51–52 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 34–15 | 31–20 |
| Overs–unders | 42–60 | 56–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–7 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.