New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Machado homered to left center (404 feet), Díaz scored and Arraez scored.1–7
- 7Díaz doubled to left, Cronenworth scored and Iglesias scored.1–4
- 6Merrill tripled to right, Arraez scored.1–2
- 5Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Baty scored.1–1
- 1Merrill singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 54%
- ML NYM -130 / SD +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +7 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Ryan Bergert: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +21 Elo | SD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 32–185th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 15237th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–56 | 59–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 23–32 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 47–60 | 45–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–6 SD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.