Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake EderPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Taylor doubled to right, Rengifo scored.3–6
- 7Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Newman scored, d'Arnaud out at second.2–6
- 4Lindor singled to left, Torrens scored, Nimmo to second.1–6
- 3Alonso homered to left center (439 feet), Nimmo scored and Lindor scored.1–5
- 3Lindor singled to left, Taylor scored, Nimmo to second.1–2
- 3Trout homered to right center (380 feet).1–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 61%
- ML LAA +145 / NYM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 60.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 5.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | LAA: Brock Burke: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +75 Elo | NYM 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 17th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 36–161st of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–48 | 46–56 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 28–45 |
| Underdog | 45–28 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45 | 45–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–4 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.