Los Angeles Angels at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to right, Alvarez scored.5–7
- 8Mauricio grounded into fielder's choice to third, Baty scored on throwing error by third baseman Moncada, Alvarez safe at third on error.5–6
- 7Soto singled to right, Acuña scored and Lindor scored.5–5
- 7Lindor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alvarez scored, Nimmo out at second, Acuña to third.5–3
- 7Ward singled to right, Schanuel scored, Trout to third.5–2
- 4Baty homered to center (404 feet), McNeil scored.4–2
- 3Adell singled to right, Ward scored.4–0
- 3Ward doubled to left, Trout scored on error and Rengifo scored, Ward safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Lindor.3–0
- 2O'Hoppe homered to center (401 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML LAA +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- LAA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +20 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +92 Elo | NYM 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 34–163rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 25th of 301462 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–47 | 45–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 27–44 |
| Underdog | 44–27 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 55–44 | 44–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–2 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.