New York Mets at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz singled to left, Iglesias scored, Cronenworth to second.6–7
- 9Mauricio homered to right center (415 feet).6–6
- 5Díaz singled to left, Cronenworth scored, Johnson to second.5–6
- 5Johnson singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to third.5–5
- 5Cronenworth reached on infield single to first, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.5–4
- 5Arraez homered to right (370 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.5–3
- 5Vientos homered to right (385 feet), Nimmo scored, J. Soto scored and McNeil scored.5–1
- 3Bogaerts singled to center, Machado scored, Merrill to third.1–1
- 2Baty hit sacrifice fly to left, McNeil scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML NYM +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- SD: Elo 52.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- NYM +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | NYM: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +14 Elo | SD 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 31–186th of 30 |
| 29th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–56 | 59–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 23–31 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 36–16 |
| Overs–unders | 46–60 | 44–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–5 SD in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.