New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto singled to center, Lindor scored.8–1
- 9Acuña scored on Doval wild pitch, Lindor to third on wild pitch by Doval.7–1
- 9Acuña scored on Doval wild pitch, Lindor to third on wild pitch by Doval.7–1
- 4Nimmo singled to center, Alvarez scored and Taylor scored.6–1
- 4Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Baty scored, Mauricio out at second, Alvarez to third.4–1
- 3Lindor homered to right (377 feet).3–1
- 1Adames grounded out to third, Ramos scored.2–1
- 1Alonso hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.2–0
- 1Soto grounded out to second, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML NYM +120 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- SF: Elo 49.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 28–2015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–56 | 43–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 16–43 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 45–58 | 49–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–7 SF in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.