New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Ronny MauricioBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer BivensPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo doubled to center, Acuña scored.5–3
- 7J. Soto homered to left (374 feet).4–3
- 7Mauricio homered to right (398 feet).3–3
- 5Chapman homered to center (410 feet), Adames scored.2–3
- 5Mauricio doubled to right, Alvarez scored.2–1
- 4Chapman homered to left center (413 feet).1–1
- 3Lindor grounded out to shortstop, Alvarez scored, Nimmo to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −4 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Matt Gage (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +34 Elo | NYM 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 17th of 3024–28 | Road vs home | 28–2216th of 30 |
| 29th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–56 | 43–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 16–45 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–59 | 50–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–7 SF in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.