New York Mets at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vientos doubled to left, Marte scored and Soto scored.2–1
- 4Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Adames scored, Schmitt out at second, Chapman to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML NYM -110 / SF -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- SF: Elo 48.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +8 Elo | NYM 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 28–2116th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 149918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–56 | 43–61 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 29–45 | 16–44 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders | 46–58 | 50–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–7 SF in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.