San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adames homered to center (402 feet), McCray scored.6–12
- 8McNeil grounded out to second, Alonso scored.4–12
- 7Nimmo scored on Beck wild pitch, Lindor to third on wild pitch by Beck.4–11
- 7Nimmo scored on Beck wild pitch, Lindor to third on wild pitch by Beck.4–11
- 7Lindor doubled to right, Mullins scored and Baty scored, Nimmo to third.4–10
- 7Nimmo singled to left, Mauricio scored, Baty to second, Mullins to third.4–8
- 6Lindor singled to right, Baty scored, Nimmo to second.4–7
- 6Nimmo singled to left, Alvarez scored, Baty to second.4–6
- 4Lindor reached on bunt single to first, Baty scored, Nimmo to second.4–5
- 4Nimmo singled to right, Mullins scored, Baty to third.4–4
- 4McCray singled to right, Lee scored.4–3
- 3Smith homered to right (366 feet), Chapman scored.3–3
- 2McCray grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Schmitt scored, Knizner out at second, Lee to third.1–3
- 1Alonso homered to center (428 feet), Nimmo scored and Lindor scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 63%
- ML SF +160 / NYM -190
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 4.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +15 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng (no track record yet) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +66 Elo | NYM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 37–171st of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–66 | 51–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–48 | 30–47 |
| Underdog | 28–18 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 51–59 | 47–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–9 NYM in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.