Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Liover PegueroBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peguero grounded out to third, Pham scored, Bart to second, Hayes to third.3–1
- 8Bart singled to left, N. Gonzales scored, Hayes to second, Pham to third.2–1
- 5Peguero homered to left center (392 feet).1–1
- 4Adames homered to left center (397 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 61%
- ML PIT +145 / SF -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- SF: Elo 54.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −15 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +29 Elo | SF 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–37 | Road vs home | 28–2417th of 30 |
| 1st of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 25th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 43–64 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 16–46 |
| Underdog | 45–29 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 43–64 | 51–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–8 SF in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.