Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hayes singled to right, N. Gonzales scored and Pham scored.0–6
- 6Cruz doubled to right, Reynolds scored, Cruz to third.0–4
- 3Cruz singled to right, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 3Reynolds doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored, Reynolds to third.0–2
- 2Pham singled to center, Cruz scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML ARI +120 / PIT -145
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +23 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 1.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +8 Elo | PIT 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 30–2517th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–51 | 53–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 56–49 | 42–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–7 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.