Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 2Reynolds singled to right, Horwitz scored and Kiner-Falefa scored, McCutchen to third.0–3
- 2Horwitz singled to right, Hayes scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML DET +115 / PIT -135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +18 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–22 | Road vs home | 26–2419th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 49–51 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 8–22 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 53–47 | 41–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.