Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Tommy PhamBatting1-3
- Mike BurrowsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −17 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +65 Elo | ARI 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 29–2417th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 52–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–35 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 26–15 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders | 56–47 | 42–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–6 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.