Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Troy MeltonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vierling singled to right, Torkelson scored.1–6
- 3Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.0–6
- 2Horwitz homered to center (416 feet), Cruz scored, Hayes scored and Bart scored.0–5
- 1McCutchen homered to center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- DET: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −9 | DET: Troy Melton (no track record yet) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +41 Elo | DET 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 28–2418th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 146425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 51–51 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–34 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 42–29 |
| Overs–unders | 54–48 | 42–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–7 PIT in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.