Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones homered to left center (451 feet), Torkelson scored.5–8
- 6Hayes singled to left, Pham scored, Cruz to second.3–8
- 6Pham doubled to left, Reynolds scored.3–7
- 6Reynolds singled to center, Horwitz scored, Reynolds to second.3–6
- 5Rogers homered to center (407 feet), Meadows scored and Báez scored.3–5
- 4Pham singled to right, Reynolds scored.0–5
- 4Reynolds singled to left, Horwitz scored, Reynolds to second.0–4
- 3Cruz scored on error, Hayes safe at first on throwing error by third baseman McKinstry.0–3
- 2Horwitz doubled to center, Hayes scored and Davis scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML DET -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +3 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 1st of 3028–23 | Road vs home | 27–2418th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15111st of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–51 | 50–51 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–33 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 41–29 |
| Overs–unders | 53–48 | 41–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–6 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.