Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4
- Merrill KellyPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 2Cruz homered to right center (410 feet), Pham scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML ARI -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −14 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +56 Elo | ARI 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 29–2518th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15101st of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–50 | 52–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–35 | 9–23 |
| Underdog | 27–15 | 43–29 |
| Overs–unders | 56–48 | 42–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–6 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.