San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Smith singled to center, Adames scored.4–3
- 8Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.3–3
- 8J. Soto singled to left, Nimmo scored, Lindor to third.3–2
- 7Alonso homered to center (414 feet).3–1
- 7Bailey doubled to right, Lee scored.3–0
- 2Lee grounded out to shortstop, Flores scored.2–0
- 2Schmitt doubled to left, Chapman scored, Flores to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML SF +125 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- SF +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +46 Elo | NYM 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 37–161st of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–66 | 51–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–48 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 27–18 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 51–58 | 47–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 7–9 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.