Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7White walked, Baldwin scored, Albies to second, Murphy to third.7–2
- 7Collins singled to center, Ortiz scored and Yelich scored, Vaughn to second.7–1
- 6Turang singled to center, Collins scored.5–1
- 4White homered to left (407 feet).4–1
- 3Vaughn singled to left, Durbin scored and Yelich scored.4–0
- 3Ortiz scored, Yelich to second, Durbin to third on wild pitch by Wentz.2–0
- 3Ortiz scored on Wentz wild pitch, Yelich to second on wild pitch by Wentz, Durbin to third on wild pitch by Wentz.2–0
- 3Yelich reached on infield single to second, Perkins scored, Durbin to second, Ortiz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / ATL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- ATL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −12 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +49 Elo | MIL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3032–24 | Road vs home | 26–2725th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301562 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–48 | 49–62 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–30 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 51–61 | 51–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–9 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.