Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Blake PerkinsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II homered to right center (451 feet).5–4
- 6Profar homered to left center (407 feet).5–3
- 5White grounded into fielder's choice to third, Alvarez Jr. scored, Allen out at second.5–2
- 5Perkins homered to right (377 feet), Yelich scored.5–1
- 5Vaughn grounded out to third, Collins scored, Yelich to third.3–1
- 4Vaughn homered to center (409 feet).2–1
- 2Turang doubled to left, Perkins scored.1–1
- 1Murphy singled to right, Albies scored, Ozuna to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML MIL +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 45.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +11 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +29 Elo | MIL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 1st of 3033–24 | Road vs home | 26–2825th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–48 | 49–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–30 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 35–18 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 52–61 | 52–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 8–9 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.