Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching8.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Soto homered to center (420 feet).4–1
- 6Arias tripled to right, Santana scored.4–0
- 3Martínez homered to left (378 feet), Kwan scored.3–0
- 2Fry homered to center (422 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML CLE +150 / NYM -180
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -161
- CLE +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 38–202nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–58 | 52–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 31–50 |
| Underdog | 37–26 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 53–60 | 50–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–3 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.