Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor doubled to right, Ramírez scored, Santana to third.4–5
- 5Ramírez homered to right (379 feet), Schneemann scored.4–4
- 5Lewis doubled to left, Larnach scored, Jeffers to third.4–2
- 5Larnach singled to center, Roden scored.3–2
- 4Wallner homered to right (419 feet), Clemens scored.2–2
- 3Schneemann homered to right (384 feet).0–2
- 2Kayfus grounded out to shortstop, Naylor scored, Arias to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 59%
- ML MIN +135 / CLE -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +2 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +56 Elo | CLE 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–34 | Road vs home | 28–2619th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 53–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 28–37 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 35–26 |
| Overs–unders | 48–61 | 50–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–22 CLE in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 33.