Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yoshida homered to right (370 feet).13–1
- 9González homered to left center (410 feet), Hamilton scored and Abreu scored.12–1
- 9Abreu singled to right, Duran scored, Hamilton to second.9–1
- 6Duran homered to right center (416 feet), Anthony scored.8–1
- 5Yoshida singled to right, Duran scored and Story scored, González to third.6–1
- 5Duran singled to center, Wong scored and Anthony scored, Duran to second.4–1
- 3Toro hit sacrifice fly to left, Wong scored.2–1
- 2Wallner homered to left (403 feet).1–1
- 2Story homered to left (369 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML BOS -110 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.9%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -106
- BOS +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3024–30 | Road vs home | 30–2314th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–52 | 52–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 27–36 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 24–18 |
| Overs–unders | 52–57 | 47–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 9–9 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.